The relentless battle for power in Samajwadi Party culminated on Friday in a vertical split with its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav expelling son and chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and his main strategist Ram Gopal Yadav from the party for six years. The development can complicate the already complex political landscape in UP just before the 2017 assembly polls.
Mulayam's drastic step was a retaliation against Ak hilesh's refusal to accept the candidates selected by the party chief and release of his own slate. On Friday, the Akhilesh camp followed through his defiance by convening a special convention of the party without bothering to take Mulayam's consent. Akhilesh's externment has led to a politically novel situation where a CM has been expelled from his party.
While making the dramatic announcement, Mulayam indicated that he would soon substitute Akhilesh with someone else as CM. But this should not necessarily endanger the incumbent. The constitutional design does not require governor Ram Naik, (read BJP-controlled Centre) to go by what happens outside the assembly to decide leadership and majority claims.
Political flux such as this expands the scope for Naik to step in, but BJP appears to see little profit in entangling itself in the squabble among Yadavs from Saifai so close to the polls, the dates of which may be announced as early as next week. The model code of con duct will kick in as soon as the schedule is out, something which will reduce Akhilesh to just a figure head.
The possibility of Akhilesh playing "victim" further diminishes the incentive for the Centre to meddle in the mess. This is a distinct prospect because of the likelihood that with the help of Congress, Ajit Singh's RLD and Independents, Akhilesh may muster enough support for him to hang on.
Governor Naik made his disinclination to go proactive clear when he told TOI, "As of now, it is an intra-pary development. I am keeping a watch on it. Necessary steps will be taken when the situation so demands."
Channels quoted him denying there was any constitutional crisis that would require his intervention.
The bitter denouement of the domestic conflict, however, appears to have undercut SP's potency as a realistic contender for power in 2017, and may work to the advantage of BSP and BJP. The splintering can push Muslims, a huge chunk of whom have consistently supported Mulayam since the early 1990s, to look at BSP to achieve their foremost objective of defeating BJP.
BJP can hope to gain because of the possibility of Muslims getting split among "secular" parties has increased in the aftermath of the political Mahabharat in the Yadav clan. The diminution of SP, especially Akhilesh who has tried to project himself as a man focused on development, can also benefit the Hindutva party by enhancing its appeal among those who resent BSP and will like the state to grow faster.
Surprisingly, Congress, the weakest of all the players, can be a beneficiary, too. The Rahul Gandhi-led outfit was struggling to stay in contention and was on the lookout for a partner. It looked dejected when Mulayam shut out the door for a partnership. The split in SP has revived the possibility for it to find a partner because Akhilesh, who favoured an understanding but was unable to clinch it because of resistance from his father, will be free to pursue his options.
The expulsion of the young CM along with Ram Gopal Yadav was the logical outcome of a feud which saw Akhilesh turning into a rebel after being denied by his father and estranged uncle Shivpal the pre-eminence that he though he deserved by virtue of being the sole legatee of the party boss.
Addressing the media, Mulayam made it clear that he saw himself as the party chief. He said that he stepped aside for his son when the chief ministership was his for the asking. "Nobody else has done this," he said. He directed his ire at Ram Gopal for working for a split in the party and for leading Akhilesh astray.
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